Somaliland is pinning its hopes of recognition as an independent state on Donald Trump, and Trump has suggested that the breakaway state accept Palestinians exiled from Gaza.
Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in May 1991, and has unsuccessfully battled for recognition ever since. Now, almost 34 years later, Taiwan remains the only government that recognizes Somaliland, and only 12 minor states, including a handful of South Sea islands, recognize Taiwan.
Somalia opposes the independence of its breakaway state, and it now holds one of the non-permanent seats on the UN Security Council for the 2025-26 term. The UN General Assembly votes on whether or not to grant statehood if the Security Council recommends it.
Recognition by powerful nations, however, can greatly add to an aspirant’s argument for UN recognition, and Somalilanders are pinning their hopes on Donald Trump, who has suggested that they accept some of the 2.2 million Palestinians he proposes to exile from Gaza.
Now right-wing Republicans are lobbying Donald Trump to recognize Somaliland as a state independent of Somalia because of its strategic coastline on the Gulf of Aden in the Red Sea region, an ideal location for a US military base. In October 2024, long before Trump proposed exiling Palestinians to Somaliland, Michael Rubin of the far right-wing American Enterprise Institute argued that Somalilanders deserve a state more than Palestinians do.
On December 12, 2024, Perry Scott, a House Republican from Pennsylvania, introduced H.R.10402 - Republic of Somaliland Independence Act, which proposes that “all territorial claims by the Federal Republic of Somalia over the area known as Somaliland are invalid and without merit,” and “the President is authorized to recognize Somaliland of the Federal Republic of Somalia as a separate, independent country.” The bill has been referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
I spoke to Somali Kenyan scholar Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad about the dynamics of the Somaliland statehood struggle.
ANN GARRISON: First, what do you think of Trump’s proposal to exile Palestinians to both Somaliland and/or Puntland, Somalia’s other breakaway state? Though not stated outright, this seems to be a proposed transaction in exchange for state recognition. Puntland has already said no, but Somaliland remains silent.
ABDIWAHAB SHEIKH ABDISAMAD: First of all, the proposal to exile millions of Palestinians from their land is wrong. It’s ethnic cleansing, and Puntland’s government is right to say that they will not collaborate in this. Somaliland seems to be silent because they don’t want to displease Donald Trump, whom they are counting on to recognize them as an independent state.
However, Somaliland will not accept millions or even hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, as that would cause a significant demographic shift in a population of six million. Such a large, educated population could overwhelm Somaliland.
AG: Right-wing Republicans are pressuring Trump to recognize Somaliland, and it has long been a project of the right-wing Heritage Foundation, which included recognition of Somaliland among their Project 2025 proposals for the Trump Administration. In a section on “countering malign Chinese influence” on the African continent, it recommends “recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti,” the tiny country of 1 million people neighboring Somaliland.
Djibouti hosts naval bases from China, France, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, and it refused to serve as a staging ground for US bombing Ansar Allah in Yemen.
Do you think the US really needs to recognize Somaliland as a state to make use of it militarily?
ASA: If the US wants another military base in Somaliland, it will officially ask the Somali Federal Republic, which will no doubt comply. Even now the US is using Barbera with permission of the Somali Federal Republic. It doesn’t need an independent Somaliland to do that and wouldn’t gain any additional access by recognizing Somaliland as an independent state.
AG: Western states, including the US and the UK, already conduct diplomatic, trade, and military relations with Somaliland without recognizing it as a state. What difference do you think statehood would bring?
ASA: These Western states are indeed dealing with Somaliland as though it were an independent state but not making it official because that would have serious repercussions in the region and beyond. They don’t need to recognize Somaliland to get what they want.
AG: The Alliance of Sahel States is a federation in which Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have agreed to work together to counter terrorism, improve security, and develop their economies. These three states will no doubt be stronger together, but there are secessionist struggles like Somaliland and Puntland’s all over the continent.
Would Somaliland secession encourage further fragmentation into smaller, weaker states?
ASA: Yes, Somaliland’s secession could set a precedent that encourages other separatist movements across Africa and inside Somalia, potentially leading to further fragmentation into smaller, weaker states all over the continent. As we speak, Rwanda’s M23 militia is attempting to break North Kivu Province off from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Fragmentation could pose serious challenges to regional stability, governance, and economic development.
AG: Where does the African Union stand on Somaliland secession and other African secessionist movements?
ASA: The African Union has historically opposed the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The AU follows a principle of respecting the territorial integrity of its member states, which is rooted in the decision of its predecessor, the Organization of African Unity, not to change colonial boundaries.
This is to avoid encouraging other separatist movements across the continent that would fragment and weaken existing states. The Alliance of Sahel States is, as you said, going in the direction of strength in unity and federation.
AG: Abdiwahab, thank you for speaking to Black Agenda Report.
ASA: You’re welcome.
Dr. Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad is a Somali Kenyan and Kenyan citizen. He is the Director of the Afro-Asia Institute for Strategic Studies and a specialist in political science, conflict resolution, and rural development.
Ann Garrison is a Black Agenda Report Contributing Editor based in the San Francisco Bay Area. In 2014, she received the Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza Democracy and Peace Prize for her reporting on conflict in the African Great Lakes region. She can be reached at ann@anngarrison.com. You can help support her work on Patreon.
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