Ethiopian soldiers retaking more areas in the Tigray region.
Armed opposition groups have failed to make gains as the capital, Addis Ababa, remains firmly under government control.
Originally published in Fighting Words.
During September a group of armed opposition groups from various regions of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia declared that they would wage a war to seize power from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the ruling Prosperity Party.
However, several weeks later the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) took control of the capital of the Tigray province resulting in the armed opposition group to abandon the capital of Mekelle.
The ENDF marched into Mekelle without any political or armed resistance from the then ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its military wing, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Although the TDF says that it abandoned its stronghold of Mekelle it claims that they will continue their fight outside of Mekelle.
As the TPLF fled the ENDF, another grouping aligned with the government in Addis Ababa, the Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), moved into Mekelle to take control of the day-to-day security issues. The TPF is a manifestation of the split within the opposition TPLF which occurred in the aftermath of the Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022.
Many believe that the events of the last few months have effectively destroyed this peace agreement which was facilitated by several key members of the African Union (AU), primarily South Africa and Kenya. The negotiations which brought an end to the war between the TPLF based in Tigray and the central government in Addis Ababa was championed at the time as a prime example of the AU creating solutions to African problems.
However, the joint statement issued by the opposition groupings in September which called themselves the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival (EPFAS) articulated no imminent threats which would warrant the initiation of a civil war. The groups which were encompassed in this coalition are the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF); Oromo Liberation Army (OLA); Amhara Fano National Movement (Fano); Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF); Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF/ANURF); and the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement (BPLM).
Several of these organizations historically have been in extreme conflict with each other. Within this reality, what is the basis of the alliance of these regional groupings? Although these rebel groups have stated that their aim is to overthrow the central government there is no firm explanation as to how they differ politically from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The TPLF which ruled the country from 1991-2018 after the collapse of the Ethiopia Worker’s Party under Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam, led a coalition called the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that waged a war for the overthrow of the EWP. The ascendancy of the TPLF-EPRDF was heavily impacted by the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Socialist states in Eastern Europe which had supported the then Ethiopian government.
A national rebellion during 2018 brought about the rise of Prime Minister Abiy. The Abiy government during 2018 signed a peace accord with neighboring Eritrea ending a war which had lasted for nearly two decades. However, in recent years relations with the State of Eritrea have deteriorated.
Eritrea had been in congruence with the Ethiopian government when the TPLF-led province attempted to succeed from the authority of the central administration in Addis Ababa. After the defeat of the TPLF and the adoption of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022, tensions surfaced over the calls by Abiy for access to the Eritrean port at Massawa.
Battlefield Reports from Tigray and Beyond
There have been reports of the defection of a leading figure within the TPLF. This compounds the internal splits inside the leading opposition rebel grouping.
According to a Substack post on the situation among the TPLF, it notes:
“The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has accused senior military commander Maj. Gen. Yohannes Woldegiorgis, also known as John Medid, of defecting to the Ethiopian Federal Government and disclosing military secrets. The accusation came a day after the pro-government Tigray Peace Force, which is allied with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), confirmed that the general was in government custody. In a statement, the TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael alleged that Yohannes had refused to participate in an internal military evaluation before defecting with a small group of associates. The group further accused him of establishing contacts with the Federal Government and sharing sensitive military information.”
Other reports from the battlefield suggest that the alliance of armed opposition groupings have failed to make gains in their efforts to seize power inside Ethiopia. In a series of articles and a briefing from the Ethiopian military, the rebels have been halted in their military operations.
An Associated Press report published by the United States based ABC News says of the present situation that:
“An official in Tigray’s new federal-backed administration urged rebel fighters to lay down their weapons Friday, hours after a rebel commander called for continued resistance despite losing the northern Ethiopian region’s capital. The calls came nearly three weeks after rebels trying to overthrow the government lost control of Mekelle, Tigray’s capital. Government-allied fighters entered Mekelle on Oct. 4 after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, withdrew. Redae Halefom Woldeselassie, the caretaker administration’s chief executive for political and public mobilization, said rebel forces were collapsing and urged fighters to enter a disarmament and reintegration program. ‘This is not the time for settling scores, I call upon you to return to your homes and continue your civilian lives,’ he said in Mekelle. He dismissed the prospect of the rebels retaking the city and portrayed the conflict as serving a small group of leaders rather than the people of Tigray.”
Meanwhile, the Ethiopia government has announced that they have received the first batch of Su-35 fighter jets from the Russian Federation. The SU-35s will be accompanied by a number of S-400s as well which are designed to bolster their national security.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed noted that the jets were delivered a year earlier than anticipated, saying that this was done due to Moscow’s concern over the security of the Horn of Africa state which is the headquarters of the 55 member-states AU in Addis Ababa. This announcement came on the eve of the convening of the Russia-Africa Summit on October 27-28 in Moscow.
Additional reports of refugees fleeing from Ethiopia into Kenya at Moyale is the result of conflicts between residents of the regional states of Oromia and Somalia. This displacement appears not to be connected with the rebel insurgents seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy.
Status of the Renewed Tensions with Eritrea
There have been several news articles claiming that Eritrean troops have been sighted on the border areas with Ethiopia during mid-October. However, there have not been any confirmed reports of serious fighting between the two states.
The Russian Federation has offered to serve as a neutral location for mediation talks between Addis Ababa and Asmara. This offer was renewed during the Russia-Africa Summit.
A regional summit was held in Egypt during early October which excluded the Ethiopian government. Those present were the leaders of Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea. The meeting participants issued a joint statement, yet no further reports on the results of the gathering have been released.
Egypt has opposed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project which President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi says would undermine the country’s water supply. However, it was British colonialism which established the current arrangements involving the Nile Rivers aimed at benefiting Egypt at the expense of Ethiopia.
There can be no benefit to the people of the Horn of Africa if a full-scale war erupts in Ethiopia prompting widespread dislocation, injuries and deaths. The offer to mediate by the Russian Federation could provide an opening for the normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea in the near future.
Abayomi Azikiwe is the Editor of Pan-African News Wire. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).
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