China to be Number One in 2030 – But Who Will be Top Gun?

A Black Agenda Radio commentary by Glen Ford

The U.S. and Europe produce less and less of what the world wants, and will be eclipsed by Asia by the year 2030, according to America’s own National Intelligence Council. But the NATO allies account for 70 percent of the world’s military budget. The task between now and 2030, is to prevent the decaying powers “from holding the productive forces and nations of the world hostage by force of arms.”


China to be Number One in 2030 – But Who Will be Top Gun?

A Black Agenda Radio commentary by Glen Ford

“’There will not be any hegemonic power,’ on the planet.”

The United States National Intelligence Council, supposedly the best and brightest among America’s strategic analysts, predicts that China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power by the year 2030. This, of course, is not news, since some economists believe China has already eclipsed the U.S. in economic output. Most people would accept the report’s larger conclusion, that Asia will overtake North America and Europe in less than two decades. After 500 years of European exploitation and war against the rest of the planet, 2030 can’t come soon enough.

The question that remains unanswered is, What becomes of U.S. imperialism when America and its European allies are no longer the economic top dogs? How can the U.S. claim some kind of grand supervisory role in a world in which it is no longer the major player in the production of the goods and services that humanity wants and needs?

The National Intelligence Council’s report says that, by 2030, “There will not be any hegemonic power,” on the planet, and that “power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.” The Council seems to betting on an alliance between the United States and China, which is described as the best-case situation for global security. If that is so, then why is Washington doing its damnedest to encircle and strangle China through proxy wars, gangster diplomacy and saber-rattling of all kinds? With 2030 right around the corner, one would think that it’s past time for the U.S. to making nice with the future center of the world.

What becomes of U.S. imperialism when America and its European allies are no longer the economic top dogs?”

The report warns that the risk of civil wars and insurgencies will remain high in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. That’s a no-brainer, since those are places where the U.S. military is busily bombing people and subverting every government that has not yet joined the American mafia, or that might come to an accommodation with rising economic players like China, India, and Brazil.

Conflicts in Latin America, on the other hand, are expected to decrease as we approach 2030. The real reason, however, for the relative peace that Latin America has enjoyed in recent years is that the hated “Washington Consensus” has been politically defeated in South America. Uncle Sam no longer has the moral, political or economic clout to plunge Latin Americans back into a state of war against themselves, for the benefit of U.S. corporations. The lesson is: with the decline of the United States, peace becomes possible.

But, there’s the catch. With the U.S. and Europe in irreversible economic decline, Washington, London and Paris grow more and more dependent on their militaries. The U.S. and its NATO allies account for 70 percent of the planet’s total military spending. If, as the National Intelligence Council report predicts, the U.S. and Europe are soon to become junior partners in the world economy, then they must also be prevented from holding the productive forces and nations of the world hostage by force of arms. The great project for humanity is to disarm the imperial beast, so that by 2030, or 2050, or however long it takes, the world can tackle the multitudinous crises that colonialism, racism and capitalism have brought upon us.

For Black Agenda Radio, I’m Glen Ford. On the web, go to

BAR executive editor Glen Ford can be contacted at [email protected].



The Tortoise and the Hare

Despite the last sixty five years of continuous attacks by Capitalist against the Communist Party, a party that FDR used to force the Capitalist to reluctantly fund the New Deal or face the growing tide of angry depression era Americans joining the American Communist Party, it appears that the Communists will eventually win this long race. This brings to mind the story of the Tortoise and the Hare and the persistence of the Tortoise against over whelming odds to win the race. China's long established Communist government is now seen as the eventual winner of this long race and Capitalism cheerfully handed them the means to win this prize in an effort to increase their private profits at the expense of average Americans. Considering the aggressive nature of a political Right, financed by the wealthiest one percent in this country who plan to create a Plutocracy, it will all be in vein for a narrow minded group that consistently measures their success solely on a monetary scale. China will find it difficult to maintain the oppressive control that has long kept the government in total control as the economy grows and it’s people demand a higher standard of living. Considering the ongoing collapse of the U.S. that has exported most of it’s major assets to low wage foreign countries and the ongoing economic advances that a much wiser Communist leadership in China has undertaken, It’s likely that by 2030 the disparities now present in both countries will be much more pronounced on the American side of the ledger. 

China Econ Prog = Capitalism Minus [So Far] Military Imperialism

China & Russia turned toward the capitalist model big time by the mid 1980s - 1990s. This fact is well documented by Naomi Klein's 'Shock Doctrine: Rise of Disaster Capitalism'. Its just that Russia & China are quite nationalistic & know full well that the US & NATO want to project hedgemonic power over the entire planet [= Full Spectrum Dominance] & are also fully aware that they are currently the only ones that can effectively check the US / EU / NATO block both economically & militarily. Also thus far China & Russia have shown far less inclination toward military imperialism [outside their own regions] than the US / EU / NATO cabal. And it must be noted that neither Russia nor China had any significant historic role in the African Maafa / Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade & the colonial rape of Africa & so-called 3rd World [China was in fact victimized by UK colonial imperilism].  

IMO: The best examples of a socialist model currently are Castro's Cuba, Chavez's Venezuala & Khadaffi's Libya [but FUK-US NATO bombed that one out of existence last yr]. 

The Lesson of Uncontrolled Growth

Russia and China are relative new comers to the world stage when compared to Western European Countries like Britain and France. They have learned the lessons of history pertaining to uncontrolled growth that eventually forced the British Empire, in the late 19th and 20th centuries, to relinquish many of the holdings that their colonial empire had accumulated as the means to finance and control these holdings were more than they could manage in a world where they were no longer the sole naval power on the planet. France also continued to pursue a similar policy with the same ultimate results, as late as the 1950’s France was forced to divest it’s control of Viet Nam after a hundred years of occupation and America was there to blindly take control and eventually mount a decade long war that we abandoned in disgrace. It's unfortunate that American Hubris didn’t stop there and continued to blind the leaders of this country who are still driven to seek the same path of failure that the British Empire experienced three quarters of a century earlier. Anglo Americans, who have always supported the British Empire’s policies but experienced a major loss of control in this country during FDR’s many terms as president, eventually forged an alliance with the militant wing of the Republican Party and a neo-liberal faction that was establishing full control of the Democrat Party in the 1980s. Both factions were financed by wealthy corporate and international banking power structures that sought to use America’s sole position as the only remaining Super Power to establish a world wide economic empire under their dominant control. 911 was the trigger to initiate their complete takeover and our society and Constitution have been under full attack ever since ! 


I am glad that I am a member of the first generation that will see the ending of the old, ugly adage that "it's a White man's world."  My only regret is that there has been no coming together of the peoples in the Black world to create a counterbalance to the White and Asian spheres of dominance. My fear is that, 50 years from now, most Blacks in the world will still be under the thumb of Europeans and Americans, while those who are not will either be owned and controlled by Chinese and other Asian economic superpowers or by Arabs under the guise of "non-racial" Islam. I hope that we as a people do not end up with a galaxy of oppressive masters instead of just one.

Black Empire

Don't worry--your hopes for a Black Empire with its own imperial sphere of dominance will be realized.

It's called the United States of America.

With the steady and inexorably demographic decline of White America, you will see African Americans (and other minorities) increasingly control the political corridors of power in the USA from the White House to the US Military to state and city level.

In an ironic twist of history, the Black descendants of slaves become the New Masters.

You have only to look at who is currently occupying the "White" House to see the future of the American Empire--and who will rule it.  



Check out the ongoing discussion of this latest mass shooting at the Progressive Black Thinkers group on Facebook. Several people believe that many of these incidents, including this one, are carefully staged, choreographed, and fed to the public in order to program and to soften people up for more police powers and surveillance.

Gun Ban

I haven't heard of any proposals for a total gun ban.

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